the race stands in the cru states. women and smoking, a big study, just released tonight containing fascinating information about the damage and quitting. an emotional recovery, the reunion for the teenager who was targeted by the taliban. tonight, her bravery and her progress. nightly news begins now. good evening, we're going into a situation this weekend that is very scary for a whole lot of people. i want to read you a quote from a veteran forecaster today, he says we are in uncharted territory here, i have never seen anything like this. i never saw anything like it, at a loss to describe what it could do. it is near certain that hurricane sandy will make landfall, rather than turning out to sea, end of quote. dire predictions like that are coming days in advance, despite

the storm that was shredded by dry air all day. not much to look at, not very powerful as the center of it sits off the coast of miami. at this moment this is what is going to happen, the set-up, the chemical reaction, when it takes a left hook, oceans will surge, trees will come down, portions of the coastline could be ravaged. we have it covered and want to talk to janice huff, how are we so confident it will blow up in size and make that left hook? well, brian, there is still uncertainty with the track of the storm, but there is a certainty that it will intensify, moving into parts of the midwest and the jet stream helping to pick up, and energize the storm even more

it is weaker now, the category 1 topping winds of 75. moving away from the bahamas, there is a chance it could be weaker by saturday afternoon. but then they project it will bring it back up to category 1 status, but they found it all the way to virginia, and maybe even the outer banks will feel its effects by then. the storm is expected to move onshore by monday and tuesday afternoon, possibly as a very strong hurricane or maybe even another type of storm, a nor'easter, moving onshore, all depending on where it moves onshore is how severe it will be. but the entire area will feel the effects, whether you're inland or along the coast. you know, the spaghetti trackers, here, all over the place. we talk about them but most of them are concentrated between rhode island and washington, d.c. so there is a possibility, that across the south of maryland, parts of the new jersey shore,

the maryland coastline will see the stronger impacts in terms of the storm surge, and heavy rain, as well. this projection brings all the rain north to southern new jersey and virginia and maryland by sunday, monday, afternoon, monday night into tuesday is when it would be the worse, brian. >> not helped by the fact we have a full moon coming up. high tides, monday night. all right, janice huff in the weather center, thank you it looks certain the storm will affect people across as we just saw that huge area and sadly, as janice pointed out, so many of the computer models have it coming along shore somewhere along the new jersey shore. nbc's ann thompson is at pleasant point for us, good evening. >> reporter: good evening, brian, a number of states in this region have already declared states of emergency. new jersey is one of the places where hurricane sandy could make landfall on monday night. already on the east coast, preparations are being made for what is expected to be an historic storm.

today, sandy toured across the bahamas, the powerful storm knocking over trees and sending the ocean into the streets, at least 40 dead in haiti, cuba and jamaica. scenes of destruction adding to the preparations along the east coast of the u.s. >> i think that everyone has learned lessons from the last storm. >> reporter: connecticut is one of 13 states haunted by last year's irene, and the nearly 16 billion in damage, leaving thousands without power for days. then hit by a surprising snowstorm on halloween. today, governor malloy warned it could be the type of storm not seen in 30 years. >> have enough food and water for everyone in your household. assume there will be an elongated period of time in which you will be without energy. >> reporter: at the massachusetts store? power supplies were hot items. >> i have generators, make sure

we have oil, flash lights, got to be prepared. >> reporter: storm surge is another worry, with a full moon, sunday night being a difficult combination, it sent the area in norfolk, virginia, out to sea. others sought safe harbor. and along the new jersey shore, these people sought safe harbor >> i may as well take the right steps, get the boat out of the way. whatever is going to happen will happen >> reporter: this boat yard couldn't keep up with requests. >> no, i'm sorry, we can't take boats out of the water. >> reporter: they're bracing for the worst here on point pleasant beach. the workers built sandbags and built along the doors of concession stands, and up on roofs, usually they took time putting away the ride, now they're trying to get it done by sunday. >> it is all hands on deck thing. just everybody pitching in and making sure we can get

everything taken care of before the storm hits >> reporter: there are also five oil refineries in the path of the storm, representing 6% of the nation's refining capacity. now fema is moving resources into the area, and the mid-atlantic region. for those of you asking if this is still hurricane season, it doesn't end until november 30th. brian? >> it is hard to watch all of that, having spent time there, ann thompson in new jersey, preparing for a rough weekend, thank you, our coverage of the storm, of course, continues through the weekend. if you're concerned about where you live, on our website there is a hurricane tracker allowing you to plug in your own zip code at nbcnightly.com. >> now we switch to the campaign coverage, 11 days to go. and on top of everything else, the frantic pace as they try to finish, now they really do have to worry about the storm, heading for some of the most valuable political real estate there. peter alexander has more. from canton, ohio, where

governor romney is, peter, good evening. >> reporter: brian, good evening to you as hurricane sandy takes aim on the east coast, forecasters are not the only ones on alert, the campaign strategists are, as well. with crews defending against potentially devastating flooding in virginia, the campaign cancelled a rally. officials in north carolina say they could suspend early voting, if needed. in ohio, snow threatens to hurt the voting efforts. in iowa today, he was introduced by a situation with the state's senior senator. >> we'll put america on a new path to a new day with a new president. obama. a new president romney, pardon me. >> time for new bold changes that measure up to the moment, that can bring the american families to the certainty that the future will be better than the past. >> reporter: speaking to a construction plant that

benefitted from mr. obama's stimulus money help, he blasted the opponent. >> we're the nine million jobs that the president promised. >> reporter: president obama targeted the most loyal supporters without ever leaving washington, courting young voters now on tv. >> we now have to go directly to the source, the colleges and universities and say you have to work on cutting tuition. >> reporter: later, working on the undecideds. >> the major issue in any election, can you count on the purpose you put into office fighting for you, with a clear set of convictions >> reporter: meanwhile, the romney campaign's national co-chair, john sununu, criticized them of using stereotypes. >> how lazy, detached he is. >> reporter: backing away from new comments on cnn's questioning why colin powell endorsed the president. >> when you take a look at colin powell is that an endorsement based on issues, or a slightly

different reason for preferring president obama. >> what reason would that be? >> well, i think when you have somebody of your own race that you're proud of being president of the united states. i applaud colin for standing with him. >> reporter: sununu released a statement, calling colin a friend, but not apologizing. i don't doubt that it was based on anything but the support of the president's policies. and we reached out to the romney campaign for comment, but they offered nothing in addition to sununu's statement. >> all right, peter in ohio, thank you, this brings us to our political director and chief white house correspondent, chuck todd. so chuck, this is the field in front of us, john sununu said that colin powell endorsed the president because they're both black guys. another endorses president obama for president, by mistake, and

romney talks about the piece of property, accepting help from stimulus money. beyond unforced errors, the romney's campaign is to put together the electoral and not the popular vote in the math, in the next ten days to push the victory. >> that is right the magic number, 270, here the states in yellow are the states we believe are toss-ups, the ones which we just don't know. they may lean one way or the other. let me take you through some scenarios where we think the battleground will narrow in the next week. if you talk to democrats they believe they're ahead in new hampshire. by the way, as you see me moving these states you will see the numbers above the president and above mitt romney change. so watch as i change them. they think they're a little bit ahead in wisconsin. but they also believe the democrats are a little ahead in ohio. they feel good, that gets the president to 263.

mitt romney, and the republicans believe, florida and virginia, the two southern states putting them in pretty good shape, getting them to 248. that brings us to the two most hotly contested, colorado and ohio, but look at this, if i move ohio over to romney, he is still short of the 270 magic number, could mean that colorado, a state we told you yesterday in the polling had it 48-48, means it could be the state keeping us up all night. but speaking of keeping us up all night, here, i give the midwestern states all to romney. wisconsin, iowa, ohio and florida, but go ahead and give virginia to the president. let me show you where this takes us. 269 for romney. 269 for the president. here, and i have no more electoral votes to push. this would mean we would have the constitution work, and this would also mean, brian, that the most likely outcome in this is the house would elect romney president, and the senate would

elect biden vp. there are a lot of possible scenarios, this one, not so implausible. >> chuck, step away from the math, we have days to go, many different scenarios, we'll be checking in with you, chuck todd, washington. and now, we turn to a tragic story around the country today. it happens around the country. this begins with a very big number, in this country, 13 million children are turned over to the care of somebody other than their parents, in many cases while their parents go to work. last night here in new york city, the absolute unthinkable happened. we get more on the story. >> reporter: marina krim returned home thursday with her three-year-old daughter to find her other two children dead. police say two-year-old leo and six-year-old lulu were stabbed to downtown

by their baby-sitter, yoselyn ortega, being seen taken away on the stretcher. the father, kevin, was out of town on business, met at the airport by the police with the news. as word spread, the neighborhood reacted. >> i woke up this morning, and my first thought was my two boys are safe in bed, and this poor family has lost two of their children. >> i know what their mother is going through right now. i'm a mother, too, who lost her kids. >> as a mother and a nanny, you tend to develop a bond with the kids that you take care of. >> reporter: and not just in new york, many across the country express their sadness on line, too. i have felt sick to my stomach on the verge of tears all day, this story haunts me to the core. by all accounts, the krim family knew their sitter well, even visiting ortega's family in the dominican republic. 63% of kids in the u.s. are cared for by baby-sitters

for parents, this is a unique relationship sometimes built on trust. >> when something like this happens, every parent questions themselves and says, am i doing anything that places my child at risk? they worry about the safety of their children while they are away from them. >> reporter: tonight, the baby-sitter is in critical condition, and a family has been shattered. nbc news, new york. when we continue here on a friday night, women and smoking. new information just out about -- tonight about the benefits of quitting. and later, that emotional family reunion for malala, the girl targeted by taliban. and the good news tonight about her recovery.

we have health news tonight that was just released before we went on the air, in the form of the largest study ever on the risk of women and smoking. some dramatic new benefits on quitting, our report from chief correspondent robert bazell. >> reporter: 28-year-old amanda garcia just joined a program to try to quit her pack-a-day smoking. she always thought about quitting. she smoked since age 15. >> i don't think i was really ready, i kept saying i'm not doing it or trying it until i am really ready. >> reporter: the study out tonight provides the latest and best evidence that quitting is worth the effort. the researchers in britain

followed a million women for 12 years, now in their 60s and 70s. smoking a pack a day starting with their teens, reducing their life expectancy by years, numbers of early deaths, a number even higher than the risk for men. >> if you're a smoker for your whole life, the chances you will die directly from your smoking are greater than the chances of anything else put together. >> reporter: the study examined women who even smoked a few cigarettes a day, doubled their chances of dying. but the news of the study is not all bad, reinforcing the idea if you quit it reduces the risk, the sooner the better. the research finds if a woman quits before her 40s, her chances dropped by 90%, if a woman stops by age 50, it decreases substantially. others's risks disappear almost completely, her reason now? her two kids. >> my kids mean everything to me, and i want to be there for them.

>> reporter: and she knows she has a far greater chance to be there by kicking the habit. robert bazell. up next, a very encouraging story about a young woman's story that we have been following.

there was a tearful but also joyful family reunion today in a british hospital at the bedside of the young pakistani woman who was targeted by the taliban because she stood up for girls and education. tonight, we see just how much progress she has made in just three weeks's time. our report tonight from amna nawaz. in birmingham, england >> reporter: ten days after she arrived in england, malala yousufzai has reunited with her family, who came in yesterday racing to the hospital under tight security. they were taken in to see her. >> last night when we met her,

there were kids in our eyes, and they were out of happiness, i say, out of happiness >> reporter: when her father last saw her in pakistan, she was hanging on to life. >> in pakistan, i told my brother-in-law, that they should make preparations for a funeral, because of the situation but thankful to god >> reporter: today, he called it a miracle that malala is expected to make a full recovery. >> everywhere across the world, they condemn the attack, in strong words, and they prayed for my daughter. which is not only my daughter, which is the daughter of everybody, sister of everybody. >> reporter: doctors here continue to take malala through a series of tests to rule out any long-term injury and say so far they see no sign of brain injury. despite being treated in birmingham, the 15-year-old remains a symbol of hope back in pakistan. >> when she fell, the person who

took her, they wanted to kill her. but i simply will say she fell temporarily, she will rise again. >> reporter: and eventually, she told her father, she will also return home. amna nawaz, nbc news, birmingham, england. >> up next here tonight, jim cantore with the latest on the storm with the power to make life miserable for us in the coming days.

well you know the rule by now, jim cantore, the weather channel, if he shows up where you live it is about to get really bad there. he is in singer island, in florida, jim, i've been amazed at what i have heard. >> reporter: and i think we'll be amazed. let's talk about it, we look at it on satellite, it doesn't really look like all that much. but while this is in its cocoon it will come out as a butterfly with a swath of winds 100 miles or up to 800 miles wide let's look at the path, probably downgraded to a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, but look for tropical storm watches or

even hurricane watches by saturday as it is forecasted to become a hurricane once again. going all the way up through the seaboard up through here. this is uncharted territory for modern meteorology. but once again, for the second year in a row, others face the prospect of being in the dark the week before halloween. >> all right, jim cantore, safe travels, we'll stay with you and the weather channel all weekend long as we track the progress of this. for us, for now, that is our broadcast on a friday night for us and for this week. thank you for joining us, i'm brian williams, lester holt will be here with you this weekend. we, of course, hope to see you right back here on monday night. in the meantime, please have a good weekend. good night. a break in the case, police make an arrest in the arson case in the office of a local mayor. what we've learned about the

suspect. >> i'm jody hernandez, two teenagers have been arrested for the brutal killing that happened inside this home. i'll have reaction from the victim's family coming up. and gearing up for game three, we're live in detroit at the giants prep for the next chapter in their magical run. thanks for being with us on this friday evening. >> the kind of case that fear and nightmares are made of. that's how the alameda sheriff's department is describing the strangulation and burning of a castro woman. two teenagers have been arrested accused of robbing and killing a woman they actually knew. jody hernandez has the details live from castro valley. this is a stunner. >> reporter: it really is, jessica. the victim and her boyfriend not only